Friday, June 12, 2026 · 3 PM ET / 8 PM UK · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ
The marquee Day-2 match of the 2026 World Cup. England vs Croatia is the 2018 Russia semifinal rematch — the match where Croatia broke English hearts in extra time and went on to the final. Eight years and two managers later, England returns with a new generation built around Jude Bellingham. Croatia returns with Luka Modrić at 40, in his final World Cup.
The model has England as a 56% favorite. Croatia at 25%. Draw at 19%. The narrative is far tighter.
Three reasons this is more than a standard Group B kickoff:
1. The 2018 ghost. England led Croatia 1-0 at halftime of the 2018 semifinal. Modrić's brilliance dragged Croatia level, Mandžukić won it in extra time, and England's "It's Coming Home" generation collapsed. Tuchel was hired specifically to bury that ghost. The 2026 version of England has to beat Croatia. Failure to do so confirms the curse hasn't lifted.
2. The first MetLife match. This is the first World Cup match at the venue that hosts the July 19 Final. Both teams know it. Both teams want to mark the building. The atmosphere will be unlike anything either side has played in this year.
3. The first real Bellingham vs Modrić showdown. The world's premier #10 vs the world's premier deep-lying playmaker. Same club (Real Madrid in 2024-25; Modrić has since moved to AC Milan). Eighteen years apart. The most-anticipated central midfield duel of Group B.
Manager: Thomas Tuchel — first major tournament since hire
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Identity: Vertical attack through Bellingham as the lone #10; Rice + Wharton double pivot
Tuchel's England has been the surprise of the cycle. He inherited Southgate's defensive rigidity and rebuilt around Bellingham as a true #10 rather than a free-roaming #8. The result: Saka and Foden have their own lanes, Kane has someone reliably playing him through, and the team's xG per match is up 24% from the Southgate era.
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Pickford (GK)
Walker Stones Konaté Shaw
Rice Wharton
Saka Bellingham Foden
Kane
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The Trent question: Tuchel confirmed in pre-tournament press that Trent Alexander-Arnold starts on the BENCH. Rice + Wharton is the double pivot. If England trails by minute 70, Trent comes on as the late-game creative outlet.
Manager: Zlatko Dalić — fourth major tournament (2018, 2022, 2024, 2026)
Formation: 4-3-3
Identity: Modrić-Kovačić-Brozović midfield triangle controls tempo; press in waves, not constantly
Dalić has been Croatia's manager through three consecutive deep tournament runs — 2018 final, 2022 third-place, 2024 Euro semifinal. His Croatia is built on midfield dominance rather than attacking flair, with Modrić as the conductor even at 40.
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Livaković (GK)
Stanišić Šutalo Gvardiol Sosa
Kovačić Modrić Brozović
Pašalić Petković Perišić
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Modrić's minutes: Dalić has been clear — Modrić starts. He plays 70 minutes. If Croatia is winning at 70, he comes off. If they're chasing, he stays on for 90. England's pressing intensity will determine whether Modrić can stay efficient or gets dragged into defensive duties.
Most-likely scoreline: England 2-1. Model's exact probability: 11.8%. The 1-1 draw is the second-most likely at 9.4%.
Mentioned above but worth dwelling on: this is the rematch. England led 1-0 at HT. Croatia equalized, won 2-1 in extra time. Modrić ran the entire midfield. Eight years later, with England now built around Bellingham specifically to avoid that helplessness, England has every reason to want this match more than Croatia.
But Croatia's tournament identity has been "show up at majors and play above our population size." 2018 final. 2022 third-place. 2024 Euro semifinal. Three consecutive over-performances. The model can't quantify how a generation that doesn't believe in losing knockout matches actually behaves.
A win + clean sheet sets up England for matchday 2 vs Switzerland (June 18) as group winners. A loss puts the 2018 ghost firmly back in the room and turns matchday 2 into a must-win. Croatia's path: a win or draw here keeps the "we always show up at majors" narrative alive.
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*Related: England full preview · Croatia full preview · Jude Bellingham profile · Luka Modrić profile · Mexico vs Germany opener · Final pre-tournament power rankings*
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is hosted across 16 cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, running from June 11 to July 19, 2026 — the first 48-team World Cup.