Croatia at the 2026 World Cup: Modrić's Last Dance, the Golden Generation's Closing Chapter

Croatia arrives at the 2026 FIFA World Cup as FIFA #11, and they arrive with the most-improbable run of major-tournament success in modern football: 2018 World Cup finalist, 2022 World Cup third-place, 2024 Euro semifinalist. Three consecutive deep tournaments. From a country of 3.8 million people.

This is the third (and almost certainly final) major tournament for the Vatreni generation — Luka Modrić turns 40 in September 2025 and has publicly indicated 2026 is his last World Cup. Around him, Mateo Kovačić, Marcelo Brozović, Andrej Kramarić, and Nikola Vlašić have been the constants through three deep tournament runs.

This is the complete Croatia preview: the squad, the manager (Zlatko Dalić — who managed all three deep runs), the Episcopal HS base camp, the Group B path through England, and an honest read on whether Modrić can lift the trophy that has eluded him.

The 30-second summary

• FIFA ranking: #11
• Manager: Zlatko Dalić (since October 2017 — the longest tenure of any tournament manager)
• Base camp: Episcopal High School, Alexandria VA — Ivy League boarding school
• Group-stage travel: 3,326 miles total
• Recent record: 2024 Euro semifinal exit (lost to Italy 1-1, on tiebreakers). 11-2-3 since.
• Key players: Luka Modrić (40), Mateo Kovačić (32), Marcelo Brozović (33), Andrej Kramarić (35), Joško Gvardiol (24)
• Predicted finish: Round of 16 or quarterfinal — top-12 is the model's modal outcome

The Modrić generation

This is the World Cup that crystallizes Modrić's legacy. He turned 40 in September 2025. He scored the winning goal vs. Switzerland in the Euro 2024 group stage at 38 (the oldest scorer ever in the tournament's history). He still plays in the Real Madrid midfield. He still operates at a level that demands attention from opposing managers.

The pattern: Modrić's 2018 World Cup run was extraordinary (Croatia reached the final, lost 4-2 to France). His 2022 was equally improbable (third-place, beat Brazil on penalties in the quarterfinal). His 2024 Euro was a quiet farewell shadow — Croatia went out 1-1 to Italy on tiebreakers.

In 2026, the question is whether the midfield around him is still good enough to make Croatia a fourth-consecutive deep-run team.

The squad

Forwards:

• Andrej Kramarić (Hoffenheim, 35) — the experienced #9
• Bruno Petković (Dinamo Zagreb, 31) — target-man closer
• Igor Matanović (Eintracht Frankfurt, 22) — rising forward
• Marko Pjaca retired post-2022.

Midfield (the team identity):

• Luka Modrić (Real Madrid, 40) — the captain, the #10
• Mateo Kovačić (Manchester City, 32) — the box-to-box
• Marcelo Brozović (Al-Nassr, 33) — the defensive midfielder anchor
• Lovro Majer (Wolfsburg, 28) — the rotation playmaker
• Mario Pašalić (Atalanta, 31) — the experienced #8

Defense:

• Joško Gvardiol (Manchester City, 24) — the next-generation defender, premiership quality
• Joško Gvardiol alongside Josip Šutalo (Ajax) — centerback
• Borna Sosa (Ajax) — the experienced left-back
• Josip Juranović (Union Berlin, 30) — the right-back

Goalkeeper: Dominik Livaković (Fenerbahçe, 31) — the 2022 World Cup penalty-saving hero, the team's other tournament hero.

The defensive question: Gvardiol is one of the best young centerbacks in the world, but the supporting cast is aging. Brozović at 33 and Modrić at 40 in defensive transitions is a known liability.

Dalić's tactical identity

Zlatko Dalić has managed Croatia through three deep tournament runs. His tactical setup is unmistakable:

• 4-3-3 with Modrić as the deep-lying conductor — possession-based, patient
• High possession (62%+ vs comparable opposition) — Croatia outdriblbes, outpasses, and outlasts
• Penalty preparation — Croatia has won three penalty shootouts in the last three major tournaments (2018 vs Denmark, 2018 vs Russia, 2022 vs Japan + Brazil)
• Set-piece defense — Croatia has the best defensive set-piece record of any top-12 team

The Dalić identity has a hard ceiling: Croatia's high-possession system requires healthy midfielders, and the squad is aging. Three consecutive tournament runs have taken their toll.

Tournament path: Group B (with England)

Croatia sits in Group B:

• England (FIFA #5) — the marquee match
• Croatia (FIFA #11)
• Switzerland (FIFA #17)
• Cape Verde (FIFA #72)

The England matchup is the third installment of one of the modern era's most-watched rivalries. Croatia eliminated England in the 2018 World Cup semifinal (Mario Mandžukić's extra-time winner). England beat Croatia 1-0 in the 2022 Euro round of 16. The Modrić-Bellingham midfield matchup is one of the most-anticipated of the group stage.

The likely knockout path:

1. Round of 32: Third-place qualifier
2. Round of 16: Group A runner-up — possibly Mexico
3. Quarterfinal: Group H runner-up — possibly Uruguay
4. Semifinal: A top-3 team

Croatia's full schedule →

What the prediction model says

• Probability of reaching the Round of 16: 60%
• Probability of reaching the quarterfinal: 27%
• Probability of reaching the semifinal: 9%
• Probability of winning the World Cup: 2%

Case for Croatia:

1. Three consecutive deep tournament runs prove the team's knockout-football craft
2. Modrić is still operating at Real Madrid level
3. Dalić-Modrić is the most-tournament-experienced manager-captain pairing in the tournament
4. The penalty-shootout edge is real (3-of-3 in recent tournaments)

Case against:

1. The squad is aging — Modrić 40, Brozović 33, Kramarić 35 in starting roles
2. Three consecutive deep tournaments accumulate fatigue
3. Group B is the third-toughest top-tier group

Where to watch + quick links

US English: FOX/FS1. US Spanish: Telemundo. UK: BBC/ITV. Croatia: HRT. Full streaming + TV guide →

• Croatia squad and player profiles
• Group B standings + live
• Build your bracket with Croatia

*Related cornerstones: Where every team is staying — base camps · Streaming + TV guide · Round of 32 format explained · England — the Group B rival · Power rankings week 1*