Argentina are the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 26%, according to WorldCupFutbol's live simulation model — ahead of France (14.7%) and Belgium (9.1%). The model banks the actual group results so far (40 of 72 group matches played) and re-simulates the rest of the tournament 12,000 times. Odds update as results come in.
# — Team — FIFA — Win title — Reach final — Reach semis — Reach knockout
1 — Argentina — #1 — 26% — 36% — 48.4% — 99.9%
2 — France — #2 — 14.7% — 24.1% — 36.9% — 99.7%
3 — Belgium — #3 — 9.1% — 15.8% — 25.9% — 86.3%
4 — England — #4 — 7.9% — 15.2% — 26.6% — 99.5%
5 — Brazil — #5 — 6.4% — 13.1% — 23.4% — 100%
6 — Netherlands — #6 — 5.3% — 10.9% — 20.9% — 100%
7 — Spain — #7 — 4.3% — 9.6% — 19.2% — 100%
8 — Portugal — #8 — 3% — 7.1% — 14.3% — 83.9%
9 — Germany — #11 — 2.7% — 6.3% — 14.3% — 100%
10 — Mexico — #12 — 2.2% — 5.6% — 13.1% — 100%
11 — United States — #13 — 2.2% — 5.6% — 12.8% — 100%
12 — Croatia — #10 — 1.7% — 4.1% — 8.5% — 57.5%
See the live, full-field title odds for all 48 teams →
The reigning champions sit clear at the top: Argentina (26%) are roughly a one-in-four shot. Behind them, a tight chasing pack — France (14.7%), Belgium (9.1%), England (7.9%) and Brazil (6.4%) — makes up the next tier. Even in a 48-team field, the trophy almost always goes to a small group of usual suspects.
Because the model banks real results, the opening round has nudged the odds. Sides that have started strongly have ticked up, while heavyweights that dropped points have slipped: Belgium, held to a draw in their opener, sit a touch below their pre-tournament number, and Netherlands (5.3%) rose on the back of an emphatic win. As more group games are played, these adjustments grow — and once teams clinch or lose qualification, their odds swing sharply.
Past the favourites, the model still gives a live chance to Spain (4.3%), Portugal (3%) and Germany (2.7%). Host-nation hopefuls Mexico (2.2%) and the United States (2.2%) carry home advantage that the raw ranking does not fully capture.
Each of the 12,000 simulations:
Match outcomes are decided by team strength — 1 / √(FIFA ranking) — the same engine behind our match previews. It is a transparent, reproducible projection that reflects results as they happen, not a claim about lineups or individual form.
Argentina are the live favourite at 26%, ahead of France (14.7%) and Belgium (9.1%), based on results through 40 of 72 group matches.
Yes. The model re-runs as group results come in, so a team's odds rise when it banks points and fall when it drops them. See the live odds tracker for the latest.
By banking the real group results so far and simulating the rest of the tournament 12,000 times, using a strength rating derived from FIFA world rankings.
Think the model has it wrong? Build your own bracket or explore the full live odds for all 48 teams.