Sunday, June 14, 2026 · 6 PM ET / 11 PM UK / 5 PM CT / midnight CET · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
The model's #1 ranked team opens against the smallest nation by population in the field. Spain enters at 21% title favorite — the clear consensus pick post-Rodri clearance. Cabo Verde is here for the first time in their history. Lamine Yamal at 18 plays his first World Cup match.
Three reasons even a heavy favorite opener is worth watching:
1. Yamal's first World Cup minute. The 18-year-old Golden Ball favorite enters his debut tournament. His Euro 2024 semifinal goal vs France (from outside the box, outside-of-the-foot, top-corner) is the 2024 highlight of all highlights. The 2026 first-Yamal-WC-moment narrative starts here.
2. Spain's bench depth on display. De la Fuente will minute-manage. Expect Yamal + Pedri + Rodri to play 60 minutes; the substitutes (Joselu, Olmo, Merino) close the match. The deep bench is what makes Spain the model's #1 title pick.
3. Cabo Verde's tournament-debut storyline. Cabo Verde (population: 590,000) is the smallest nation in the field by population. Their qualification was a feel-good moment of the cycle. Their model probability of winning the tournament: <1%. Their probability of a result here: also <1%. But every minute they hold Spain scoreless is a tournament-debut win.
Manager: Luis de la Fuente · 4-3-3
Style: Possession-dominant; vertical attack through Yamal + Williams; Rodri shields the back four
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Unai Simón (GK)
Carvajal Le Normand Laporte Cucurella
Pedri Rodri
Yamal Morata N. Williams
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Key calls: Yamal starts (his minute window — first half then sub). Morata starts as #9. Joselu comes on as the late-game target striker.
Manager: Bubista · 4-2-3-1
Style: Deep defensive block; counter-attack through Ryan Mendes and Bryan Teixeira
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Vozinha (GK)
N. Lopes Lobete Roberto Diney
Pico Vagner
Mendes Sidny Teixeira
D. Tavares
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Tactical note: Cabo Verde will sit very deep. Their entire match strategy is "concede possession, don't concede goals, find one counter."
Most-likely scoreline: Spain 3-0 (16.4%). Spain 2-0 (11.8%). Spain 4-0 (10.2%).
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*Related: Spain full preview · Lamine Yamal profile · Final power rankings · Who will win World Cup 2026*
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is hosted across 16 cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, running from June 11 to July 19, 2026 — the first 48-team World Cup.